Stock pick for 01/03/2012
Dear traders,
I wish you all good start and very profitable 2012 year. I truly hope that we all will be smart enough to have good time in business what we are doing.
Here are few words about market. From my watch list you can see that I have ideas for both sides. Conclusion is that market is in very indecision moment. Indices daily/weekly/monthly charts suggest that everything is open. I know that I don’t sound very smart with that, but bounce from monthly 20sma won’t be surprise from technical side; on the other side break down (because pace is not good) won’t be surprise too. When we talk about bigger time frame charts we must include some other world stuffs. Lots of time will depends from Europe and euro problems and then we can turn in to third scenario and that is range continuation. Unfortunately I don’t expect that one news can move this indecision range action (hope I’m wrong) and I think that we will see more bleeding if we look from technical side. Try to look only weekly or daily time frame charts and you will see that. Let’s only exclude SPY weekly chart. Question is can SPY break over 50sma on third try or we will see false move and then strong move down. Remember when all will be done then is very easy to be smart and write why that happens. That is not my job; my job is to recognize risk. Because of that at this moment I will look for all possibilities, up/down, swing or intraday setups but all those trades will be with less risk than usual. When we will got direction then I will add my risk. I know that in the room I always repeat: patience, patience, patience. But look at daily/weekly/monthly indices charts and you will see that is clear and if maybe it isn’t I will be very happy to give you addition al explanations. I’m always afraid that because of language barrier my explanations are not clear so please use that offer.
Wish you all great trading day, week, year
Ivica
AVY - long
Technical view: Daily consolidation result with weekly continuation pattern and that is why I like it. First resistance is $30 area and that is 1st target, but if will be broken then we could easily see bounce to daily 200sma area and $32 resistance area. It is not uptrend stock but it we take a look at monthly chart we can see what bounce to monthly 10sma is very open what could result with daily move and swing trade. Setup is above last week high with stop under last week low. Also, on the weekly chart we can see that last week bar is narrowest bar in a longer time, what suggest that we could see some stronger action with good reward.
CMI - short
Technical view: CMI is something very similar to DKS. There is little bigger risk because 20sma resistance area is still not here and odds for small move down and bounce to resistance is open, but despite of that I like swing possibility because of consolidation after selling wave. First support is $85 area and monthly chart suggest that if we will be on right side and with market help we can easily see $80 what is final target area, but it will be better to talk about that when we will see few day’s action.
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