xpertstocktrader: prosinca 2011

srijeda, 28. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/28/2011

Stock pick for 12/28/2011

CREE - long

Technical view: CREE I will look for moment bounce and nothing for longer swing trade. For that we need to see stronger weekly sign. For now idea is bounce from 20sma 60 min and third try triangle possible run. That will be also second buying wave and from all this we could see that CREE have fairly good odds for run to daily 20sma or weekly 10sma. Also pay attention on 60 min 200sma resistance area. It is little aggresibe idea without seeing open action, but I hope you will understand idea. My interest is with 20sma bounce.

ponedjeljak, 26. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/27/2011

Stock pick for 12/27/2011

DLTR - long

Technical view: We took DLTR on Thursday pull back and at Friday we can see that 20sma daily bounce odds are interesting again. I know that is already on the monthly move but this daily opportunity is interesting and it is (for now) in line with my expectation for this week. I think that we could see upside action on light volume. Also if we look at intraday DLTR charts we can see nice consolidation and it can be used for day trade trading plan with stop under $83. I like that kind of ‘possibility because of DLTR will see setup then with trading plan can turn in to swing and in that case we could see great risk/reward trade.

PANL - long

Technical view: I like PANL for long above Friday high. We can see on the daily chart that PANL struggling with 10sma resistance area in hope that will be broken. It was third day with trying and odds for break up increase and because of that on my list is for long above $35.40 (Friday high) and I will look for run in to 20sma resistance area.

FSLR - short

Technical view: After new low FSLR started with rest (consolidation) and reached daily 10sma resistance area. It was first try and odds for selling continuation are fairly good and because of that I have it on list for short under Friday low, but also I follow intraday action and if won’t be some bigger surprises after open I will look for short under $34.50 with stop above $35, but I will tell more about that when we will see open action. If won’t be gaps then intraday trading plan will be interesting. We can see on the chart that consolidation pace is much weaker then selling pace what suggest for selling continuation. On the other side if FNSR will hole then odds for expectation what we have with PANL will increase. Conclusion: consolidation under resistance increase odds for breakup. If anyone will have any question about any of those ideas please feel free to contact me.

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"I have been trading for over 5 years. I am continually impressed by Ivica's understanding of the market. He provides low risk and extremely profitable trading opportunities. His watch list is always concise and includes an overview of the market as well as very specific set ups..."

Debbie Groll

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petak, 23. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/23/2011

Stock pick for 12/23/2011

CSIQ - long

Technical view: CSIQ broke daily down trend and after Tuesday bear trap open and two consolidation days I will look for buying continuation. First resistance is $3.25 area, then $3.50, $3.75 and $4 area what I will look for target.

četvrtak, 22. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/22/2011

Stock pick for 12/22/2011

FAST - long

Technical view: I will use FAST 60 min consolidation for another buying wave and run to $45 what is equal move and number resistance area. Also we can see on the daily time frame that intraday consolidation for daily continuation pattern. Continuation pattern stop is usually under previous day low ($42.75), but if we won’t see pull back under 20sma 15 min we can use stop under $43.00 support area.

srijeda, 21. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/21/2011

Stock pick for 12/21/2011

FIS - long

Technical view: Another bear trap and I like daily cup and handle. I will look for buying continuation and run to previous high or 200sma daily resistance area. Monday volume is higher and I will use intraday consolidation for trading plan. There are more similar charts, but I really don’t feel comfortable when to many charts are same and in that case I feel that some trick is around and because of that reason what trade I will take or not depends on bigger time frame charts and room for possible action

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utorak, 20. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/20/2011

Stock pick for 12/20/2011

AAPL - short

Technical view: I found several similar 60 min bear flag setups. AAPL is one of them. I like to note that longer consolidation will decrease risk, but on the other side in situation like AAPL after setup we could see strong selling pace what will be daily weakness confirmation. If we won’t see stronger pace after setup then odds for false breakdown will increase. I like AAPL under 20sma 60 min and I will use stop above 200sma 60 min. Those two lines I use for trading plan. First strong daily support area is 200sma area.

subota, 17. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/19/2011

Stock pick for 12/19/2011

december results:

http://www.xpertstocktrader.com/2011/performance/122011.htm

TWX - long

Technical view: I know that someone can say: again cup and handle pattern. Look like we have many similar patterns out there. But TWX monthly continuation pattern was reason why I brought TWX on list for Monday. Friday volume was higher and break above $35.38 will be monthly continuation pattern setup confirmation. In that case we can look for possible few weeks swing trade and run to $38.50 (previous weekly high) and $40 resistance area. TWX daily bars can overlap a lot and because of that I used bigger stop then 15 min 200sma. Risk will be same; it will be just less lots.

petak, 16. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/16/2011

Stock pick for 12/16/2011

Dear traders,

I didn’t find many ideas where I will bring trading plan before the open. I think that short side is higher risk and only what we could get is possible intraday short side only for day trade. I’m not ready to take swing short trade because I like to see more 60 min rest for lower risk. Because of that if weakness will continue my focus will be on intraday setups. On the other side there are no strengths to be more bullish and I will be caution. Generally, indices charts suggest being more patient. We had many calls last two days and now are time to be pickier. Under you will see several ideas and for all watch list ideas I want to see open action first before I will post trading plan. Generally setups are under or above pattern what I draw on line and that is not hard to calculate, but let’s see open first. At this moment I think that we will have slow upside day with choppy intraday action and weak upside pace. That is expectation and market will show us was that expectation right or not.

Wish you all nice trading day and don’t remember that for any misunderstand you can always contact me ivica@xpertstocktrader.com

Ivica

TMO - long

Technical view: I will say that is classic CCI divergence possibility. We can see 60 min consolidation and if TMO will stay in range after open we can use stop under $43.90.

četvrtak, 15. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/15/2011

Stock pick for 12/15/2011

ALK - long

Technical view: Daily chart clear show us consolidation after strong bounce from daily 200sma support area. Always after consolidation I’m interested for another wave. If we look at ALK 15 min chart we can see intraday range and that can be used for trading plan too, but that is more aggressive possibility especially if will be setup right after the open. In that case stop can be under $71.75 (20sma 15 min). I don’t know what kind of open will be but if 15 min range will continue then I will use it for stop and until then stop will be under $71. Weekly and monthly time frame charts support ALK move to new high. For now we can say that ALK is own way chart and that don’t care much about market action.

srijeda, 14. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/14/2011

Stock pick for 12/14/2011

CHKP - short

Technical view: CHKP is something close to DTV. Monthly and weekly chart support swing short possibility and for that I will use daily triangle. Stop is little higher (daily 200sma) than usual because market is very tricky lately so I don’t want be stopped with small stop. That won’t increase risk because risk will be same and we will took less lots. It will be nice if won’t be setup right after the open because risk is always high when we have setup right after open and usually I avoid that.

utorak, 13. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/13/2011

Stock pick for 12/13/2011

ORLY - long

Technical view: ORLY formed on the daily time frame continuation pattern and it is one of my favor patterns. Result with intraday consolidation after Friday move up. We can say that for now ORLY is “own way” chart because there was no reaction on Monday weakness. ORLY has room for equal move (blue lines on the chart) and move to $85 area and because of that I will use it for target. Trading plan is simply but also I will look to move stop under 20sma 15 min if will be setup before any intraday pull back.

nedjelja, 11. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/12/2011

Stock pick for 12/12/2011

KMP - long

Technical view: For now KMP obviously look as “own way” chart. We can see clear uptrend and several day’s consolidation (odds for 10sma bounce) what result with daily triangle and weekly continuation pattern. My interest is above 79.25 and break above $80 will confirm upside continuation and new ever time high.

GOOG - long

Technical view: On the daily chart we can see classic move – rest (base) – move (?) possibility. But interesting is to see GOOG monthly chart too. If GOOG will break above $650 area that will be monthly breakup confirmation and could lead to longer swing position what can be good info for position traders. For start I will look for swing setup above $630 and then we will see pace and volume for rest.

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petak, 9. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/09/2011

Stock pick for 12/09/2011

Dear traders,

Risk remain higher and I will stay in same mode as last few days and that mean I will look for ideas and I will take them with small risk. I like to see if market back in normal or this news driven market continue and I want to check that only with small risk. For market action I don’t have special bias, but I think that Europe news are not something special and I will favor more bears then bulls, but on the other side my focus will be to find own way chart.

Wish you all great trading day

Kind regards

Ivica

DBD - short

Technical view: After move from high DBD started with bear flag correction on the daily time frame chart and went to 20/200sma resistance area. I will look for selling continuation under yesterday low and stop will be above 15 min consolidation. Break under 29 will confirm swing potential and in that case (depends on market support) we could see some longer swing action

SLV - short

Technical view: SLV daily/weekly potential stay same and this time I will use 30 min time frame consolidation for trading plan. I like it under yesterday low and for now stop is above 30 min consolidation, but I plan to move it fast after setup, because if we won’t see stronger 5/15 min selling pressure then odds for back and break up on the 15 min will increase. Day trade target area will be $30 as number supp0’ortb area, but all that depends on volume and pace after setup.

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utorak, 6. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/06/2011

Stock pick for 12/06/2011

Dear traders,

It is more and more difficult to find lower risk setup for next day. Reason for that is resistance what indices reached on the daily time frame. Pace was very strong what not suggest for selling continuation (not at this moment). Since stronger resistance “area” is here then risk for long side is understandable. On the other side every try for 60 min correction finish with new high and because of that short side is not low risk too. Daily indices charts suggest that wild range action could continue. I can now enumerate several possibilities what can be or not. Point is that we are at moment when chart can’t suggest swing move (for sure not lower risk setup move) and with news what can come out every day it will be just guessing from my side. For me it is more important to see what solutions I have. First, I will wait at least first 5-15 min before I will take any trade. Risk will be small as usual last days and patience will stay my best friend. It is game with nerves and I don’t know where end but I will know that I like to see action before I will take any trade. That is hard for watch list because we had many gaps last days and all change after open. Because of that I invite you all to contact me for any specific trade if there will be any question.

I wish you all great trading day

Ivica

DY - long

Technical view: DY look like have own way and on the daily/weekly tiem frame we can see that DY trying to break on the new high and it is daily third try. In the past it was really nice charm pattern, but lately in news market don’t work that well. Anyway, we can see that Monday was open with bear trap (opened above Friday high and closed near lows) and I will look for possible continuation and for that I will look 15/60 min time frame. Another stop is under Friday low. My interest is trap and new high buying pressure.

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nedjelja, 4. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/05/2011

Stock pick for 12/05/2011

SEIC - long

Technical view: SEIC closed above 20sma resistance on the weekly time frame and I will look for buying opportunity above 17.05. If that will be vase, then for sure we want it for swing trade to stay above that weekly 20sma (support area at that moment). For ideal swing setup it will be best for SEIC to stay in consolation several more days for lower risk setup. If SEIC won’t see setup at Monday it will stay on my swing long list. Depends on after setup action, target will be daily or weekly 200sma resistance area.

AMZN - short

Technical view: After daily move down and bounce from high on the AMZN daily chart we can see relative weakness if we compared with market action last few days. Also AMZN at Friday reached to 200/20 simply moving average on the daily time frame and weekly 50sma resistance area. I will look for selling continuation and for now idea is under $195 what is under Friday low and under 20sma 60 min. Initial stop will be daily 200sma but I hope some intraday resistance will be good for better reward.

petak, 2. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/02/2011

Stock pick for 12/02/2011

JOYG - long

Technical view: Another daily continuation pattern after Wednesday bears trap open. On the daily time frame we can see that is third try to break consolidation channel and yesterday action showed small range bar what result with continuation pattern. JOYG have swing potential if will break above $94 area and have room to run and reach $100 resistance area. It will be ideal if pace and volume after setup increase because 60 min time frame is little extended and in news market it can always be tricky, but after two 60 min buying waves it is ok to expect another one. On the chart I brought intraday stop and that is under 20sma 15 min what I will use when I will see action after setup.

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četvrtak, 1. prosinca 2011.

Stock pick for 12/01/2011

Dear traders,

I like to say few words about my style. I use patterns for trading and that mean I look for consolidations (base, flag or triangle) with other words I look situation when chart is in rest period after move. I believe that is good way to find lower risk setup with good reward possibility. I know that after yesterday strong gap up (news driven) no one want to hear patience, but I can’t change charts and I believe that all who scan overnight seen that many chart are extended, especially on the 60 min time frame. One of important parts to be successful trader is that you must feel good in trade what you will take. Regardless if is swing or scalp trade. I just don’t feel when I jump in extended chart and only what I can do is to be patient (again). I know that patient is another very important part but most of traders don’t like to hear it. I have some ideas for today, but I want to see market action first. Also I found one (already on the move) chart with some intraday consolidation and I hope it will give us some good action. Despite of nice gap up, and good odds for continuation, I just don’t feel good to jump in this high speed running train, I want to see at least slow down or station (consolidation/rest). I think that is logical that if we have pattern on the daily or weekly time frame that is less risky for swing trade and small time frame patterns are more aggressive and good for scalps. That is general (lots of room for profit between that) but I think that is good to keep that in mind

Wish you all great trading day

Ivica Juracic

WBMD

Technical view: WBMD is already on the move and also not far from previous high and now question is why I have it on list? Yes, it is little aggressive trade, more than is ideal for me, but I can’t ignore daily continuation pattern and strong breakup volume. WBMD back under weekly 200sma resistance area and with continuation pattern for trading plan there are open odds for strong break up continuation. I want to see stronger pace after setup and because of that I use 20sma 15 min for stop because if we will see selling after setup and if WBMD back under 20sma 15 min that won’t be pace what I like to see and because of that I use it for stop. Next resistance is $40 is and after that 200sma what is also weekly gap area. I think that WBMD have good chances for that action and hope news driven market won’t change it. Note: trading risk remain higher for me